Rory McIlroy Closes In on History as the Race to Dubai Reaches Its Climax
Rory McIlroy of Team Europe hits his tee shot on the first hole on the Black Course during the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage State Park on Tuesday, September 23, 2025 in Farmingdale, New York. (Photo by Michael Reaves/PGA of America)
2025 has felt like the year Rory McIlroy finally won everything that mattered. From completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta to lifting the Irish Open and then leading Europe to Ryder Cup glory, the last eleven months have been among the most rewarding of his glittering career. Whether the Northern Irishman can sustain that form into the new year remains to be seen, although there is mounting evidence in the latest odds that more McIlroy magic could be on the way.
The Odds Point to More McIlroy Glory
The latest betting odds from Paddy Power price the 36-year-old at 8/1 to win the Masters in five months, which is only behind Scottie Scheffler at 3/1. As for what those odds mean in terms of probabilities, Paddy Power offers tools to work out any potential returns, from singles to doubles and even an ACCAs calculator. In this case, a €10 bet on McIlroy would pay out €90, including stake. In other words, the signs point toward another plentiful trophy return in the new year.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dreams do come true. <a href="https://t.co/6WiHrVIjNl">pic.twitter.com/6WiHrVIjNl</a></p>— Rory McIlroy (@McIlroyRory) <a href="https://twitter.com/McIlroyRory/status/1911834772717871185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
However, before that happens, there is one last trophy McIlroy will have his eyes on, one that he knows how to win having lifted the last three editions of it.
The Race That Defines the European Season
McIlroy arrives at Yas Links as the man to catch in the Race to Dubai standings. Sitting on 4,132.56 points, he is targeting a seventh Harry Vardon Trophy, awarded annually to the player who tops the European Tour’s season-long rankings. A victory would move him within one of Colin Montgomerie’s record eight titles, a landmark that once seemed untouchable.
Rory's arrived in Abu Dhabi 👋#ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/0HfErq48xs
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 4, 2025
The 441-point cushion over England’s Marco Penge, who recently claimed the Spanish Open, looks comfortable on paper, but the final fortnight in Abu Dhabi and Dubai will decide everything. With the playoff points increased for the last two events, nothing is nailed down yet. A player who wins both could collect around 3,500 points, enough to turn the standings on its head. McIlroy knows that as well as anyone. A couple of quiet weeks and someone could close the gap, but one good finish, maybe even just one more win, and he keeps his grip on the title.
Seve Ballesteros and Colin Montgomerie are the only players who’ve shown that kind of staying power across so many years, and McIlroy now finds himself right alongside them. For Irish golf, that level of dominance is a source of huge pride, and it may yet get even better. As McIlroy chases number seven, his great friend and Ryder Cup teammate Shane Lowry will be out to spoil the party.
A Test of Staying Power
First awarded in 1937 and named after Jersey legend Harry Vardon, the trophy has evolved alongside European golf itself, from its early days as an “Order of Merit” based on stroke averages to the lucrative Race to Dubai era. Vardon’s own precision and consistency set the tone, qualities McIlroy has embodied across his six triumphs since 2012.
As the Race to Dubai reaches its close, one thing feels certain: McIlroy remains the man to beat on the DP World Tour. His ability to rally at the right moments, to keep finding motivation in a career that has already delivered almost everything, explains why the Harry Vardon Trophy so often ends up back in his hands.
